{"id":2405,"date":"2009-02-06T15:09:07","date_gmt":"2009-02-06T21:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/granades.com\/?p=2405"},"modified":"2009-02-06T15:09:07","modified_gmt":"2009-02-06T21:09:07","slug":"historical-perspective-on-the-jan-2009-us-job-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/granades.com\/?p=2405","title":{"rendered":"Historical Perspective on the Jan 2009 US Job Losses"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an update to my <a href=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/wordpress\/2008\/12\/05\/historical-perspective-on-the-november-2008-us-job-losses\/\">November post<\/a> about US job losses. For more information about where I got my data, please see that post.)<\/p>\n<p>The US job market is definitely still sliding. Back in December I crunched some numbers to see how bad the job losses were as a percentage of the total number of jobs. Here&#8217;s what it looks like now that we have two more months of bad news.<\/p>\n<h4>Historical Job Losses<\/h4>\n<p>Here are the job gains and losses since 1960.<\/p>\n<div class=\"centerimage\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-change-jan09.png\" alt=\"Monthly change in the number of jobs as a function of time from 1960 to 2006\" title=\"Monthly change in the number of jobs as a function of time from 1960 to Jan 2009\" width=\"500\" height=\"366\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-change-jan09.png 500w, https:\/\/granades.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-change-jan09-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;ve now had three months whose drop is nearly that of the single largest drop in December 1974, as is shown on this table of the top ten greatest monthly losses.<\/p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\ntable.data {\n\tborder-width: 1px 1px 1px 1px;\n\tborder-spacing: 2px;\n\tborder-style: double double double double;\n\tborder-color: gray gray gray gray;\n\tborder-collapse: collapse;\n\tbackground-color: white;\n}\ntable.data th {\n\tborder-width: 1px 1px 1px 1px;\n\tpadding: 3px 3px 3px 3px;\n\tborder-style: inset inset inset inset;\n\tborder-color: gray gray gray gray;\n\tbackground-color: white;\n\t-moz-border-radius: 3px 3px 3px 3px;\n}\ntable.data td {\n\tborder-width: 1px 1px 1px 1px;\n\tpadding: 3px 3px 3px 3px;\n\tborder-style: inset inset inset inset;\n\tborder-color: gray gray gray gray;\n\tbackground-color: white;\n\t-moz-border-radius: 3px 3px 3px 3px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<table class=\"data\">\n<tr>\n<th>Year<\/th>\n<th>Month<\/th>\n<th>Difference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1974<\/td>\n<td>Dec<\/td>\n<td>-602,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2009<\/td>\n<td>Jan<\/td>\n<td>-598,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2008<\/td>\n<td>Nov<\/td>\n<td>-597,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2008<\/td>\n<td>Dec<\/td>\n<td>-577,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1980<\/td>\n<td>May<\/td>\n<td>-431,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1970<\/td>\n<td>Oct<\/td>\n<td>-430,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2008<\/td>\n<td>Oct<\/td>\n<td>-380,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1975<\/td>\n<td>Feb<\/td>\n<td>-378,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1974<\/td>\n<td>Nov<\/td>\n<td>-368,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1975<\/td>\n<td>Jan<\/td>\n<td>-360,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>September 2008 isn&#8217;t on the list after its preliminary numbers were revised. Now October 2008 is on it instead, and November 2008&#8217;s non-preliminary numbers are worse than before.<\/p>\n<p>Now let&#8217;s look at job loss as a percentage of the jobs that could be lost. That is, take the number of jobs lost in a given month and divide that number by the jobs you started out with in the previous month.<\/p>\n<div class=\"centerimage\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-percent-change-jan09.png\" alt=\"Percent change in number of US jobs from 1960 to Jan 2009\" title=\"Percent change in number of US jobs from 1960 to Jan 2009\" width=\"500\" height=\"366\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-percent-change-jan09.png 500w, https:\/\/granades.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/monthly-employment-percent-change-jan09-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>As before, the shape of the graph is about the same, but the fluctuations are now larger earlier in time. Here&#8217;s the top ten worst months by percentage of jobs lost.<\/p>\n<table class=\"data\">\n<tr>\n<th>Year<\/th>\n<th>Month<\/th>\n<th>Difference<\/th>\n<th>% Diff<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1974<\/td>\n<td>Dec<\/td>\n<td>-602,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.77%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1960<\/td>\n<td>May<\/td>\n<td>-340,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.62%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1970<\/td>\n<td>Oct<\/td>\n<td>-430,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.61%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1975<\/td>\n<td>Feb<\/td>\n<td>-378,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.49%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1980<\/td>\n<td>May<\/td>\n<td>-431,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.47%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1974<\/td>\n<td>Nov<\/td>\n<td>-368,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.47%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1975<\/td>\n<td>Jan<\/td>\n<td>-360,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.46%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2009<\/td>\n<td>Jan<\/td>\n<td>-598,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.44%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2008<\/td>\n<td>Nov<\/td>\n<td>-597,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.44%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2008<\/td>\n<td>Dec<\/td>\n<td>-577,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The bottom of our list is filling up with recent months.<\/p>\n<p>These are still all one-month drops, and the data shows a lot of single-month drops that are surrounded by gains. How does 2008-2009 compare to other runs of job losses? Between 1960 and now there have been seven times that we&#8217;ve lost jobs for four or more months in a row.<\/p>\n<table class=\"data\">\n<tr>\n<th>Period<\/th>\n<th>Months<\/th>\n<th>Difference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jan 2008 &#8211; Jan 2009<\/td>\n<td>13<\/td>\n<td>-3,498,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aug 1981 &#8211; Dec 1982<\/td>\n<td>17<\/td>\n<td>-2,838,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Mar 2001 &#8211; May 2002<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<td>-2,202,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nov 1974 &#8211; Apr 1975<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>-2,164,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jul 1990 &#8211; May 1991<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>-1,621,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>May 1960 &#8211; Feb 1961<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>-1,256,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Apr 1980 &#8211; Jul 1980<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>-1,159,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>What a difference two months makes. Through November, we hadn&#8217;t lost as many jobs since January 2008 as we had from November 1974 to April 1975. Now we&#8217;ve lost far more than that. On sheer number of jobs alone, we&#8217;re in our worst run since 1960. What about job losses as a percentage of the number of jobs that existed before the losses?<\/p>\n<table class=\"data\">\n<tr>\n<th>Period<\/th>\n<th>Months<\/th>\n<th>Difference<\/th>\n<th>% Diff<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aug 1981 &#8211; Dec 1982<\/td>\n<td>17<\/td>\n<td>-2,838,000<\/td>\n<td>-3.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nov 1974 &#8211; Apr 1975<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>-2,164,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jan 2008 &#8211; Jan 2009<\/td>\n<td>13<\/td>\n<td>-3,498,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>May 1960 &#8211; Feb 1961<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>-1,256,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.29%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Mar 2001 &#8211; May 2002<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<td>-2,202,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.66%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jul 1990 &#8211; May 1991<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>-1,621,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Apr 1980 &#8211; Jul 1980<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>-1,159,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>I&#8217;d still rate the 1974-1975 recession worse, based on this list and the fact that the job losses there were sustained over a mere 6 months. But the situation&#8217;s bad, and not getting any better. Two months ago I said, &#8220;While we&#8217;ve experienced worse recessions, given another four or five months of this and we could move into the top spot across the board.&#8221; It may not take four months at the rate we&#8217;re going.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an update to my November post about US job losses. For more information about where I got my data, please see that post.) The US job market is definitely still sliding. Back in December I crunched some numbers to see how bad the job losses were as a percentage of the total number &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/granades.com\/?p=2405\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Historical Perspective on the Jan 2009 US Job Losses<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2405"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2410,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2405\/revisions\/2410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/granades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}